海外研报

A hike, a hold and a cut

Central banks are in sharp focus this week. The Fed (Wed) has little upside to do anythingmore than hint that a September cut is on track. For the BoJ (Wed), we maintain our out-ofconsensus call for a 25bp

Precious Metals Trading Desk View

This publication was prepared by Bank J Safra Sarasin (BJSS) Trading department. The views or ideas expressed herein are those of the desk and/or the author only. The publication cannot be considered as investment research or a

Weekly spending update through July 27

Key takeaways• Total card spending per HH was up 0.1% y/y in the week ending Jul 27, according to BAC aggregated credit & debit card data.

US Daily: July Payrolls Preview (Walker/Rindels)

We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 165k in July, below consensus of +175kand the three-month average of +177k. We estimate private payrolls increased

How effective is currency hedging usingforwards?

One of the many complexities in currency risk management arises from effectivelymanaging risk of a portfolio exposed to continuous currency exposure. This isimportant for both corporations and asset managers alike. For corporations, thisform

EURO CRISIS 2.0 – THE “CRISIS” AT THE CORE

There is talk of a new euro crisis, this time centred on core EMU countries like Germany and France. This fear is unwarranted. While low interest rates stimulated the EMU core during the

Hong Kong: Retail sales rose in June

On a month-over-month basis (seasonally adjusted), Hong Kong retail salesincreased in June (+1.7% in value terms, +1.4% in volume terms). Sales value rose

Situation Room July FOMC: Yes man

The biggest takeaway from the July FOMC was that chair Powell largely agreed with market pricing for a September cut (Exhibit 1), assuming no big surprises on inflation.

On Our Minds - Taiwan Still thriving in the AI boom

Taiwan’s economy has remained resilient thanks to the AI boom. 2Q GDP growth was stagnant – but this followed strong expansion in recent quarters. The AI boom has

Japan: government expects BoJ to create steep curve, not rate hikes

The government has clearly indicated that it intends to “shift corporations from excess savings to excess investment, and completely