海外研报

Commodities Technical Advantage Oil’s Bermuda triangle is nearing an end

View: Oil’s Bermuda triangle is nearing an endOil prices have been trading in a narrowing range, or a triangle pattern, for over a year

BoJ: why this time is different

We calculate z-scores (using 1990-2019 as our sample) for four key measures ofunderlying inflation: (1) Shunto (wages), (2) core-core CPl adjusted for changes inconsumption taxes, and (3-4) price expectations series from surveys that haveproved to

FX OutlookYen-maggedon

De-risking of crowded positions is different from amacro shock. There is not much evidence of the latterin recent strong dataflow, and recession models contin-ue to hover in benign territory.

FX Viewpoint USD: Cool data, hot politics

Key takeaways• Cooling US data and Fed-speak has brought forward cut pricing and weighed on the USD. We expect more depreciation in H2.

FX Watch Where to fade the JPY rally

Cross-JPY pairs have been in secular uptrends since the start of the current rate cycle in 2021, and drawdowns to 100d SMA have been common. On average, major G10/JPY