海外研报

UK—July Inflation and June Labour Market Preview

BOTTOM LINE: We expect the upcoming July inflation print (scheduled for releaseon 14th August) to see services inflation decelerate to 5.48%, down from 5.74% in

Ukraine: Inflation Rises Above Mid-Point of Target, As Expected

Bottom Line: Headline CPI rose by 0.6pp to +5.4%yoy in July, broadly in line withour forecast and consensus expectations (both +5.3%yoy). This marks the first time

MONETARY POLICY MATTERS, BUT GROWTH MATTERS MORE

Macro Drivers: Despite the soft payroll numbers, a US recession remains unlikely ◼ Multi Asset: Fed cuts are only good for risk assets when a recession does not follow

MXAPJ closed the week flat, led by rebounds in the Greater China markets

MXAPJ closed flat, with Hong Kong & China Offshore (+2%)leading Korea (-4%), Singapore (-3%), and Australia (-2%).

Resist The Urge To Buy The Dip

The risk-off mood that dominated markets on Thursday, Friday and the early stages of Monday's trading amiddismal payrolls, tech earnings and manufacturing PMls seems to have dissipated for the time being. Thepositive signal from July's iSM services

Treasury Curve: Own 2 -Year/10-Year Curve Steepeners

According to BCA Research's US Bond Strategy service, Friday's employment report caused financiamarkets to price-in some .

European equities: Q2 2024 earnings season recap

Cautious guidance: Current market volatility is due to a combination of factors in a poorliquidity month and cautious corporate guidance. We continue to recommend a defensivestance and buying into high-quality companies that have derated.

Global Macro Watch Known Unknowns 11 – 16 August

July US CPI should be good enough for a September cutWe forecast headline CPI rose by 0.3% mom in July, owing mainly to a pickup in core

Any more systematic pressure in USDJPY and US equities?

Benchmark CTA down big this past MondayWhile declining steadily in each of the last four weeks, this past Monday the SG CTA benchmark index posted its largest daily drop since Mar-23. This on the same day

Data offers a bit of comfort, but sentiment still fragile

CPI inflation has improved in recent months following the hotter-thanexpected data in Q124, and we expect that trend to continue with another