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Tech Diffusion: Navigating AI Oversupply

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the
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China: weaker consumption looms over GDP recovery

The weak Q2 GDP (4.7% y/y) suggests the official target of 5% for 2024 is not a done deal. As H2 2023 constituted 53% of the annual GDP in 2023,
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Liquid Insight G10 growth convergence and FX

Key takeaways• Q4-to-Q4 consensus GDP forecasts see US growth converging lower to G10. USD has +55% corr to US-World growth diff since 1974.
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Outlook for BoJ's "detailed plan" and likelihood of July rate hike

On July 9-10, the Bank of Japan held meetings of the Bond Market Group to gather market opinions on its "detailed plan" for reducing bond purchases, set to be
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Global Commodities What a Trump presidency could mean for commodities

Arguably the most important delta for physical commodity markets coming from a Trump Presidency—a proposed implementation of major tariffs on US imports —wouldn’t come for
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ECB—Holds Rate and Emphasises Data-Dependence

BOTTOM LINE: The Governing Council left all policy parameters and the formalguidance unchanged, as widely expected. During the press conference, President
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The rotation has yet to reach CCCs

Cuts are unlikely to flatten IG curvesn USD IG spread curves have remained remarkably stable this year. n A transitory downstream flow effect of Fed cuts on front-end spreads is possible
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Global Rates Trader Front-end tipping point

Stars align for Fed cuts, tailwind for G10 front-end flatteners. Six months agothe US rates market embedded nearly 175bp of cuts for the year and the prospect of
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GS DOT budget tracker points to slowing state infrastructure spending plans in 2026+

As part of our GS US Infrastructure toolkit, we conducted our annual update ofall 50 US state transportation budgets, which revealed:
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Prefer US to China exposure

side, several large companies have reduced their guidancedue to weakness coming from China (L’Oreal lowered its
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