海外研报

Yen Carry And AI Bubble: One And The Same Trade

The analysis of price complexity strongly suggests that the ‘yen carry trade’ and the AI bubble are one and the same trade, premised on three conditions:

Signals from the Credit Market for US Growth Risks

We think signals from the corporate credit market are fully consistent with a soft landing.

The US Fiscal OutlookIs Unsightly,But A Debt Crisis Is Not Inevitable

Executive SummaryInvestors have observed that pandemic spending materially worsened the USfiscal outlook and are asking our US strategists about it in nearly every meeting

Global Macro Insight

Data releases over the past month have underscored our expectation that the FOMC will start to reduce policy restriction from September (-25bp).

Global Credit Trader There and back again

While spreads have nearly completed their round-trip back to pre-selloff levels,implied volatility on macro indices remains elevated.

BoJ downplaying structural deflationary pressures of excess corporate savings

The BoJ is constructing its inflation forecasts mainly on upward pressure on wages from labour shortages due to the aging of the