海外研报

Ukraine: Inflation Rises Above Mid-Point of Target, As Expected

Bottom Line: Headline CPI rose by 0.6pp to +5.4%yoy in July, broadly in line withour forecast and consensus expectations (both +5.3%yoy). This marks the first time

MONETARY POLICY MATTERS, BUT GROWTH MATTERS MORE

Macro Drivers: Despite the soft payroll numbers, a US recession remains unlikely ◼ Multi Asset: Fed cuts are only good for risk assets when a recession does not follow

MXAPJ closed the week flat, led by rebounds in the Greater China markets

MXAPJ closed flat, with Hong Kong & China Offshore (+2%)leading Korea (-4%), Singapore (-3%), and Australia (-2%).

How Deep Will The Recession Be?

According to BCA Research's Global investment Strategy service, the next US recession will not beparticularly deep. However, our colleagues do not buy that structural imbalances are so slight that the USeconomy will avert a downturn

Is Gold A Good Place To Hide?

Despite the recent market rout, gold's performance has maintained its leadership position. Global equities arup 7.5% in 2024YTD, global bonds are up 2.6% over the same period while gold prices have rallied by a soli17%. Given our high conviction