海外研报

Global Macro Thoughts “Normal service will now resume”

Where noted in the source notes, the views expressed within this report are taken from previously published research. For further detail, including important

RECESSION APPEARS INEVITABLE BY YEAR- END, UNLESS THE FED CUTS (THEY WILL)

The search is on for indications that the economy is heading towards recession if the Fed fails to act sooner than later – not for indicators of recession itself. The softening data that are rolling

US Economic Perspectives CPI preview comment

We continue to expect a 25 bp rate cut in September and not 50 bp. We view the current debate amongst the FOMC as whether they want to move from long signaling a

Economic Insights

Core CPI inflation likely remained weak in July. We expect an increase of just 0.077% m-o-m, similar to the June reading of 0.065% .

NVDA Bars, DELL, GTLB, S, SMCI, Hon Hai

Sentiment: Even before last month’s Blackwell panic, investors I speak with were already looking to diversify their AI holdings a bit; but still nobody seemed keen to bet against the name, on a view that the remain extremely

Active managers’ holdings update What are your neighbors doing?

2Q trades: LOs bought Comm. Svcs., sold cyclicalsOver the last quarter, long-only funds (LOs) increased their relative weight in

UBS - Rebecca Cheong - I am turning tactically bearish next 2 months (at least -10%) – IWM,

Over the last two weeks, market internal has deteriorated to be the worst YTD. Current condition is also the most vulnerable in 6 years – which means any small