海外研报

Seeking Certainty Amid Change

We expect a range-bound market in near term, as recent rallyhas largely priced in the positive developments since February.Despite positive policy pivots, we caution against persistentdeflation pressure and rising complexity from trade protection

The rotation has yet to reach CCCs

Cuts are unlikely to flatten IG curvesn USD IG spread curves have remained remarkably stable this year. n A transitory downstream flow effect of Fed cuts on front-end spreads is possible

Global Macro Insight 17 July 2024

Door opening to Fed rate cuts, September eyed• The door is opening for the Fed to begin cutting rates soon, which we expect to start in September (25bp). Q2 inflation data indicate disinflation