海外研报

RECESSION APPEARS INEVITABLE BY YEAR- END, UNLESS THE FED CUTS (THEY WILL)

The search is on for indications that the economy is heading towards recession if the Fed fails to act sooner than later – not for indicators of recession itself. The softening data that are rolling

US Economic Perspectives CPI preview comment

We continue to expect a 25 bp rate cut in September and not 50 bp. We view the current debate amongst the FOMC as whether they want to move from long signaling a

Economic Insights

Core CPI inflation likely remained weak in July. We expect an increase of just 0.077% m-o-m, similar to the June reading of 0.065% .

NVDA Bars, DELL, GTLB, S, SMCI, Hon Hai

Sentiment: Even before last month’s Blackwell panic, investors I speak with were already looking to diversify their AI holdings a bit; but still nobody seemed keen to bet against the name, on a view that the remain extremely

Active managers’ holdings update What are your neighbors doing?

2Q trades: LOs bought Comm. Svcs., sold cyclicalsOver the last quarter, long-only funds (LOs) increased their relative weight in

UBS - Rebecca Cheong - I am turning tactically bearish next 2 months (at least -10%) – IWM,

Over the last two weeks, market internal has deteriorated to be the worst YTD. Current condition is also the most vulnerable in 6 years – which means any small