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European Contextual Diary The Week Ahead

Danske Bank (Buy, PT DKr244) to report Q2 2024 Results on 19 JulFollowing the recent positive profit warn by Danske, we expect a small reversal in credit
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US Weekly Kickstart

Prediction market odds have shifted sharply in favor of a Trump re-election this November and now stand at roughly 60% compared with 40%-50%
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USD: when good news is bad news

The USD has been able to hold up steady overnight, having already recouped most of the ground initially lost due to the US CPI miss yesterday. Despite being among
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Rising Demand for Government Bond Funds

Net flows into global equity funds were moderately positive in the week endingJuly 10, though the underlying regional composition was more mixed (+$10bn vs
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EM Equities and US tariff risks: The usual suspects

Company revenue exposures may understate sensitivity...Based on theannual CY2023 revenue breakdown of about 1400 MSCI EM companies, we
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Global Economics Wrap-Up: July 12, 2024

Consumer sentiment appears more sensitive to inflation in DMs (whereinflation is rarer) than in EMs, and the effect tends to persist for two yearsafter a surge ends.
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Summer Break

n GBP: Stay long vs USD. The tactical backdrop looks increasingly friendly for riskand negative for the Dollar with further signs of a benign slowdown in US
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Quarterly Market Review

The economic momentum of the first quarter of 2024 continued into the second, and the last three months were another positive period for equity markets. Initially, investors aggressively
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More data please, July edition

Monetary Policy | Still waiting for more data: The ECB will keep rates on hold in July. From its perspective, more data is needed to confirm the assumed (and
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Breaking the Rules

It’s a general rule that you should avoid saying “This time is different.” So far, though, I have broken that rule in this cycle, because so much of what we are seeing
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