海外研报

GEMs Equity Wrap-up July 2024

In July 2024, EM equities underperformed all other major regional indices, though allwere in positive territory, india contributed most positively, distantly followed by SouthAfrica, but it was majory offset by the negative performance of Taiwan

Investor Sentiment: Risk-Love A binary call

Global Risk-Love resets to neutralGlobal Risk-Love, our contrarian sentiment indicator for equities, has plummeted from

Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro Derivative Thinking

All attention this week will be on Jackson Hole, where the conference has been aptly titled “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.” We

FX Viewpoint USD: Cool data, hot politics

Key takeaways• Cooling US data and Fed-speak has brought forward cut pricing and weighed on the USD. We expect more depreciation in H2.

On Our Minds - Taiwan Still thriving in the AI boom

Taiwan’s economy has remained resilient thanks to the AI boom. 2Q GDP growth was stagnant – but this followed strong expansion in recent quarters. The AI boom has

Global Economics Weekly A change in narrative

As central bankers gather in Jackson Hole next week, thenarrative for policy easing is building. Inflation is in retreat,

Commodities Technical Advantage Oil’s Bermuda triangle is nearing an end

View: Oil’s Bermuda triangle is nearing an endOil prices have been trading in a narrowing range, or a triangle pattern, for over a year

BoJ: why this time is different

We calculate z-scores (using 1990-2019 as our sample) for four key measures ofunderlying inflation: (1) Shunto (wages), (2) core-core CPl adjusted for changes inconsumption taxes, and (3-4) price expectations series from surveys that haveproved to

Sharp Pullback But Not There Yet

Equitypositioningisdown butnotlow, Even afterthe sharp drop this weekoverall equitypositioning is still well above average. it is also slightlyabovelevels implied byQ2 earnings growth which looks to be tracking just above10%so farthisseason, leavingroom

US rates forecast update

The resulting baseline forecast has the 10y UST yield at 4.25% at year-end, withyields across the curve modestly above forwards.The forecastgenerally sees front.end spreads (2s5s) a bit flatter than forwards, reflecting a more gradual pace of