海外研报

The Consumer in Context

Our view has been that consumer spending would slow but not slump; so far that path has played out. Employment, wealth, and

US Daily: Renewed Progress on Recession Risk (Hatzius)

After the July jobs report released on August 2 triggered the “Sahm rule,” weraised our 12-month US recession probability from 15% to 25%. Now, we have

The yen carry trade-what if Japaninstitutions decide to unwind?

Public pension funds. lhe GPlF is the big one here, with other smallerfunds believed to generally follow its lead. There's a growing view that theGPIFcould cutforeign bond exposure when it announces its next policy mixin 2025.

What Companies Are Saying: StillWaiting And Seeing

Companies broadly report steady growth butnota lotofupward momentum as theyand their customers are still in a pervasive wait and see loop given lingeringuncertainties around inflation, interest rates, domestic politics, elections,

Americas Morning Research Summary

This summary is compiled from research reports previously published by Barclays Equity Research. A full list of all publications is available on

Energy Sigma Another reset

Oil prices have recovered somewhat from the early-Augustselloff that coincided with another reset in speculative

OLYMPIC MEDALS AS A LEADING INDICATOR?

With the Paris Olympics having finished with a medal table reminiscent of Cold War superpower dominance, we decided to take a look at the historical medal performance at the Summer Games

The VIEW Asia's Bond Markets

This month's Overview is a primer on Panda bonds, RMB-denominated bonds issued byoffshore entities in China's domestic market. Gross issuance rose 82% in 2023 to a recordRMB154bn, and 2024 is on course to be another big year, We explore

Demand upcycle creates valuation upside; Raise TPs for GDS/VNET; Buy GDS

More specifically, we see China wholesale IDCs are entering an upward demandcycle driven by Gen-AI and GPU-related capex among cloud hyperscalers (e.g. we

GS--Asian equities fell by 2%, dragged down by North Asian markets

MXAPJ -2%, dragged by Korea (-6%), Taiwan & China (-3%),while Thailand posted a 6% gain. Financials and software