海外研报

DB CoTD: The Kuiper Belt..

The 2024 Institutional Investor (II) Fixed Income Analyst survey is now open. If you’ve appreciated our work over the last year, it would mean a lot to us if you’d be

Another month of soft retail spending

Retail sales probably declined in JuneTotal card spending per household (HH), as measured by BAC aggregated credit and debit cards, was down 0.5% year-over-year (y/y) in June. Card spending per HH was

Yen has room to rally further if CTAs are stopped out

Could CTAs provide the next push lower for USDJPY?In the moments after Thursday’s US CPI print was released, USDJPY declined more than 2% on suspected FX intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance. Heading into this

Forecast update: Softer macro data call for caution

Growth in the US has moderated further in recent weeks. After a 1.4% annualised rate in Q1, the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker indicates the economy expanded by an annualised 1.5%

Trump shooting, China Q2 GDP to sway market mood

Market HighlightsThe US dollar fell 1.7% this month, respecting seasonality pattern, which has been reinforced by more dovish market expectations for Fed rate cuts. Markets are now

Global Economics Weekly

Slowing US inflation now makes Fed cuts in both Septemberand December likely. Inflation dynamics are less clear in the UK

Taking shelter from inflation

Weekly Viewpoint: Taking shelter from inflationA downside surprise to June CPI inflation, driven by softer shelter, should increase the Fed’s confidence that inflation is converging to target. That said, rate cuts are not just

The Buffalo Is Back

While economic surprises have been negative lately, leading indicators and easing global central-bank policies point to the slow global expansion gaining traction in the second half of 2024 and 2025.

Powell Deftly Opens the Door for Rate Cuts, but Doesn't Appear Ready to Step Through It

Fed Chair Powell made a subtle shift in his stance on monetary policy today, speaking before the Economic Club ofWashington DC. He made it abundantly clear that he did not want to send a signal about any particular meeting coming

Attempted assassination of presidential candidate Donald Trump

On Saturday evening, former President Donald Trump was wounded in anassassination attempt during a campaign rally. A bystander was killed, andtwo others were critically wounded. The assailant was shot dead by securityservices.