海外研报

FOMC – Heavy thumb on September scale

EventThere was very little expectation of a monetary policy move, and today’s FOMC justified this expectation. As the press conference went on, Fed Chair Powell gave

US Macro Strategy: July FOMC Preview Rate cuts priced-in, now what?

Evolving rate cut expectations: At the start of the year, there were a slew of cuts expected. However, a combination of higher Q1 inflation and hawkish Fedspeak pushed pricing to less than 2 cuts for all of

USD and the Fed: how soon is now?

Asia overnightDespite a weak lead from US technology stocks, investor sentiment remained firm in Asia. China’s soft PMI data is encouraging investors to think more help for the

BANK OF ENGLAND TAKES A SMALL LEAP OF FAITH

The MPC has delivered a 25bp reduction that takes Bank Rate to 5% in what is essentially an “insurance” cut.As mentioned in the minutes, “it is now appropriate to reduce slightly the degree of policy restrictiveness" while

Global Macro Thoughts “Normal service will now resume”

Where noted in the source notes, the views expressed within this report are taken from previously published research. For further detail, including important

A hike, a hold and a cut

Central banks are in sharp focus this week. The Fed (Wed) has little upside to do anythingmore than hint that a September cut is on track. For the BoJ (Wed), we maintain our out-ofconsensus call for a 25bp

Which Is More Impressive, The 3Q Revenue Clip Or Zuck’s New 'Drip'?

META continues to execute at arguably the best pace of anycompany in digital advertising, with little revenue deceleration

Catalysis analysis

Catalysts abound in the week ahead, between key economicdata, Fed/BoE/BoJ decisions, and the all-important (Tech)

BoE Votes 5-4 to Cut Policy Rate; Non-Committal Tone on Path Ahead

BOTTOM LINE: The MPC voted by a majority of 5-4 to lower Bank Rate by 25bp to5.00%, with Bailey, Breeden, and Lombardelli joining Ramsden and Dhingra in voting

Situation Room July FOMC: Yes man

The biggest takeaway from the July FOMC was that chair Powell largely agreed with market pricing for a September cut (Exhibit 1), assuming no big surprises on inflation.