海外研报

FADE THE RECESSION NARRATIVE

The market has been hypersensitive to negative economic surprises because of the extent to which GDP growth and earnings expectations have been ratcheted up over the course of this

European Morning Research Summary

This summary is compiled from research reports previously published by Barclays Equity Research. A full list of all publications is available on

June deficit contracts in line with moves from advance goods report

The overall trade deficit narrowed $1.9bn in June, to $73.1bn, reflecting export growththat outpaced import growth. The deficit narrowed less than we expected (Barclays -$72.1bn,

Opportunities in NJA local markets after overshoot

1. Wild price action in Asian local markets post US July employment report.Markets have experienced a sharp de-risking and unwind of carry trades (particularly

a complete exit from deflation after the next global economic cyclical recovery

Despite stagnant domestic demand, the BoJ's premature lifting of its negative interest rate policy and additional rate hike put downward pressure on the credit

Japan: main points of Japan’s economic outlook

Due to remaining structural deflationary pressures indicated by the abnormal positive corporate savings rate, the global economic

30y JGB auction preview: Market turbulence liable to weigh on sentiment

・ Greater clarity on the BOJ JGB purchase tapering frontThe BOJ's "detailed plan" for tapering back its JGB absorption released on 31 July points

Macro at a Glance: Latest views and forecasts

n Revised our Fed policy path expectations to include a string of consecutive 25bpcuts in September, November, and December (vs. quarterly cuts previously) as

Midday Market Intelligence: seeking

...a levelTuesday’s calm seems to be carrying over on Wednesday, with markets seeming toshed some of the worry seen earlier in the week, while still remaining cautious. A

No smoking gun

Bottom line• The Q2 labour market data was stronger than our expectation. The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.6%, below our forecast of